Taking advantage of our unknown future

At a recent conference run by the Australian Chamber of Industry (ACCI) and Business SA, I spoke to a room filled with both established and aspiring entrepreneurs. A lot of ground was covered, from how autonomous vehicles will change cities, to how augmented reality will change behaviour. In the leadup to this conference, I spoke in detail with the organisers about those topics, and many more. Of pertinent importance to the conference audience was my point that in a time of unprecedented change, we are in control of what happens next. Instead of preparing for the future, we can design it.

Here are the highlights from my interview with ACCI…

If your business is not aware of future technological opportunities, are you in danger of being left behind?

In one word: yes. One good example of technology that every business needs to think deeply about right now is autonomous vehicles. On the surface these look like something that are going to put taxi and Uber drivers out of work. Then you begin to realise it’s truck drivers too, and delivery men. Then you start to think about the implications for government revenue: these vehicles won’t speed, won’t run red lights, won’t drive drunk, nor park in a handicapped spot. As fewer cars crash, the role of insurers is also redefined. If a car can drive itself, it doesn’t need stay parked in the place you got out of it, so inner-city car parks won’t be required for many more decades either. What about personal injury law practices, and crash repairers, and traditional hire car companies? Autonomous vehicles have profound and far-reaching knock-on effects for all industries well beyond transport.

If you don't have people looking to the future, identifying possible downsides and upsides on how emerging technologies might change your business, you are setting yourself up for a big hit. Potentially, a big fall. It's just a matter of time. Change will happen, whether you’re paying attention to the effects of it or not. It is of incredible importance to have the right people thinking deep and long about the implications of emerging technology, so your business can capitalise on it, rather than be a victim of it.

If we can’t really predict what the future will bring, what is the cost when you guess wrong?

A scarier question is “what is the cost if you don’t guess at all?” At a certain point — trying not to be too early or too late — you have to make a judgement call. People love talking in absolutes, especially when thinking about the future, and there’s no problem with that... if it's not driving decisions alone. Early on, talking in absolutes can do unforeseen strategic damage. Eventually though, despite remaining doubts or unanswerable questions, you do have to draw a line in the stand, create a strategy for the future being discussed, and move forward.

As someone who works on this kind of foresight strategy, it’s not our job to predict an absolute future. It’s our job to thoroughly understand the possibilities, understand what the business consequences could be, and then work towards the future desired. People forget that the future is something we craft. Rather than just trying to adapt or be ready for it, with enough research about the present and past, with enough thought on what is possible later, in a very real way we can create the future.

How much time do you put aside to do this kind of thinking? Do you make it a priority?

I do. I don't read a lot of books, though. No fiction ever, and few non-fiction — but I do read a lot. There seems to be a popular sentiment that smart people read a lot of books, but what's of value is reading lots of high quality information that matters to you, whatever that is and wherever you find it. Critically, however, don’t read for the sake of reading. Read only what you’re interested in. When you're interested, you’ll learn far faster than something that makes you yawn. If it's not something you're passionate about, you'll never be exceptional in it anyway.

I always recommend that people make some time to read about what interests them, every single day. Even if it's just the 30 minutes they'd otherwise spend watching a TV show they don't really like much anyway. Of course, the pre-requisite for all self-education is motiviation and, yes, curiosity. I'm not sure this curiosity is inate, but I hope it is. Our capitalist reality may dampen that curiosity, with the loudest messages encouraging consumption over creation, but curiosity is definitely something that can be cultivated. It starts with not just accepting things as they are, by asking “why” and “how” about everything in our lives. It's especially important we teach our kids to do this. The more people who begin to actually understand how the modern world around them works, and why it works that way, the higher frequency of better ideas they will have. From the electricity that charges their iPhone, to why they pax taxes and where that money goes... knowing these things are intellectually enabling. We take too much for granted.

Reading daily is simply a good habit to get into, and we are creatures of habit, after all. With enough repetition, you're able to define your habits. To use the old adage “you are what you eat”, what you eat is just another of your habits. In fact, you are your habits — once you've defined enough of them, they end up defining you. So make sure they're ones you're proud of.

I suppose technologies like autonomous vehicles will free us from some of the mundane, and give us all more thinking time?

There are pros and cons with all technological advancement, but what has been demonstrated throughout recent history is that, so far, we've ended up in a place of overall betterment. We shift culture and behaviour to meet technological change, but only when it’s more beneficial to us than it is detrimental. The future we arrive at will be a byproduct of our choices as creators and consumers. Technology is not forced upon us against our will. People choose technology when they see more gains than pains in many aspects of their lives because of it — indeed, such as small efficiency gains that cumulatively mean less menial and repetitive things, and more time for things we care about instead.