The future of work, and our ultimate end

I like to think about the future. A lot. Both our immediate future so I can make better business decisions, and our distant one so I can make better decisions about what business to be involved in. An incredibly hot topic right now is the subject of automation, AI, robotics, and what that means for us humans and the future of work. Very recently, I made some comments on social media about this, which generated some important conversions - ones worth sharing. Below are just some of the questions, and my subsequent responses.

As a qualifying statement, I don't expect to be right - futurists should be considering options for our future without being wedded to absolutes, as they simply won't be right. I also don't expect you to agree with my view on the theme of the possible future described. However, that possible future - as well as the alternatives - are ones that everyone needs to start thinking about right now, as our pace of change is accelerating to points in time which could easily become existential risks for humankind.

Full disclosure: I'm an optimist. Not unrealistically so - I'm certainly not panglossian - but in my life I've seen no meaningful progress derived from pessimism. Some of the concepts described may seem far fetched, but it's important to remember that culture and our values shape themselves around technological progress and related benefits - not the other way around. Who reading this knows someone who said "I would never ride in a stranger's car"? Because of this, it's even more important that we steer technological progress rather than just be a passenger of it. Of course, to do this, we need many activists - people willing to fight for their idea of a better future. Somewhat of a call to arms, I ask that if you're worried about the future, find a way to play a part in designing the one you want - it won't just unfold.

Brace yourselves, this spirals quite fast...

"Will the next jobs revolution be different to past ones? We've been here before: the printing press, the steam engine, etc."

What is likely to remain the same: tech will destroy and create many jobs.

What is likely to be different in future: tech will destroy many basic jobs (e.g. clerical), but instead create fewer complex ones (e.g. engineering) to replace only some of them. Tech will increasingly do this faster and faster, meaning less time to re-skill for new complex jobs than the time once permitted to re-skill for new basic jobs.

One thing is almost certain: if you're expecting to get a degree and do that job for life, you're mistaken.

"So, a society and economy that increasingly does away with the need for people? An upper class of tech owners producing product for a population who cannot afford to purchase it?"

Where we can end up is a time where we've resigned our role as economic actors, living in a world of automated abundance. Transport, food production, cleaning... everything, always, without a stress in the world. AI and robots won't need owners or operators at that point - they would self maintain and any iteration beyond their own self learning, optimisation and adaptation would be subject to open source collaborative iteration by the communities they serve.

The question in my mind is: how rocky does it get before we make it there? Without measures such as a universal basic income, and ones we haven't even thought of yet, the time between now and then looks nearly certain to install chaos.

"How do we reframe the sense of purpose the average person needs to get fulfilment out of life in the coming years?"

When you break down what work is, fulfilment doesn't truly come from "work". It comes from mechanisms that make up work: creation, collaboration, sharing, socialising, playing, achievement... We can maintain all of these mechanisms without work as we know it today. In fact, that automated world I speak of should provide the option to do these with more freedom than now.

"What does the average person do to occupy themselves day to day? You are going to end up with a lot of idle hands doing the devils work."

Depending on which technologists, futurists, and philosophers you listen to, much of the population may well be engaged in a return to uniquely human pursuits, such as art and indeed philosophy - deeply engrossed in the process of creating and thinking in ways only humans can. Even if we develop general artificial intelligence, with consciousness, it's almost unfathomable to think it will be the same kind as ours. Many others might spend much of their time being entertained, spending time with friends and family, or in simulations.

I would argue that idle hands do not lead to the devils work. Idle hands lead to creation, exploration, philosophy. History has demonstrated that with added convenience and efficiency gains, which deliver more free time to us, the species has accelerated even faster. A simple example of this is our transition from hunting and gathering to practices like agriculture, freeing up much time once used to hunt and gather.

"I just feel like its a big over estimation of the amount of people capable of those pursuits. So we put them all into simulations? Simulations of what?"

The people not capable or willing to undertake those kinds of pursuits will do the same thing they love doing right now. They'll engage in what they find fulfilling, which is things such as entertainment and socialising. They'll put themselves in simulations much like the ones people already spend time in: Xbox and religion. When you break it down, these are points based systems, providing goals, with next levels to get to. Some of these systems and points are superficial - people might argue the modern corporate ladder fits that description - and some are obviously profound. People partake in these simulations for reasons including escapism (from reality and work, ironically) and competition. I think people will continue to do so. People find enormous meaning in their current simulations. They find purpose and pleasure.

"Entertainment and socialising is not enough. If you have no 'work' to compare it to then it ceases to be something of value - the novelty will wear off very quickly."

There is "work" in entertainment and socialising (I'm referring to the aforementioned mechanisms that make work what it is). Status pursuits, the act of creation etc. Think Minecraft. Think Xbox Gamerscore. Achievement and reward are key drivers for why people undertake most things, from conventional work to watching a feel good movie for the subsequent emotional delight. Achievement and reward are found in many places, and this this will be increasingly the case if our future simulations are believable realities...

"Minecraft as an example is that its meaning and satisfaction is diluted by not being real. There is a lot of satisfaction in creating and playing in that world. But at the end of the day it isn't real."

People dedicate their lives to "simulations" - World of Warcraft and esports come to mind. Lots of people would love to do this forever and never deal with "work". Most people aren't technologists or artists. Most people in the west are actually employed as things such as drivers, or retail and hospitality staff... Many people don't enjoy the things they do for work, nor find fulfilment in them.

Those comparisons aside, future simulations won't be unreal - they'll eventually be real enough for us to not know any different, if we want. If you read up on Nick Bostrom's Simulation Theory, he makes good arguments for why we might already be in one. It's hard to take that concept seriously, but it's hard to deny his logic.

"I guess then the question is - what is the point?"

There is no point, except the ones we make. Ultimate nihilism - being the acceptance that none of this really matters (likely to end in a big freeze, big rip, or big crunch) - is a great tool for evaluating what is really important to you personally, pursuing that, and helping others pursue what is important to them if you agree. That has been my personal experience, anyway.

Everyone needs to start thinking about these future possibilities, because how we raise the next generation - and help shape levels of anticipation for these kinds of changes - is going to greatly affect the outcome of the entire species. This includes an important cultural shift from one that sees dignity in "work" to dignity in "creation" more broadly that we must strive toward.